Yesterday I put up an article discussing Swanni’s BD win scenario. Now another writer at TVPredictions has had his say, and he doesn’t toe the line. He thinks that Swanni’s off base. So what does this guy, Joseph Whip, have to say?
Mr. Whip thinks that BD will not become a major success, overthrowing HD DVD. While he thinks that HD DVD will do better, it won’t be a smashing success either. Basically, he says that they’ll both be losers. (My words, not his.) Both will languish as niche products, somewhat like laserdisc did. How could this happen? Mr. Whip suggests that HD downloads could play a big part. It could affect the success of both BD and HD DVD.
But!
But if this doesn’t happen, Mr Whip suggests that HD DVD will be the winner in the format war.
But why does he think HD DVD will do better? Cost for one. HD DVD players are cheaper. This is an argument that’s pretty hard to argue with. But HD DVD’s cost advantage won’t last forever. The PS3 is coming, and it’ll cost $500, the same price as the MSRP of the cheaper Toshiba HD DVD player.
Mr. Whip suggests that the PS3 won’t be used to play movies, but games, by the majority. I don’t know about that - I plan to use a PS3 as a BD player myself. Then he says that the HD DVD add-on for the Xbox 360 will be used to play movies, not games. True enough! But he heavily implies that Xbox 360 owners with this peripheral will be watching HD DVD movies by the hundreds of thousands, but that PS3 owners will not. But what’s to say the PS3 won’t also be used to play movies? Why would Xbox 360 owners watch movies in HD, but not PS3 owners? That I just don’t understand, and frankly moots his whole argument, in my opinion. If anything, more PS3 owners will watch HD movies than Xbox 360 owners, just because they don’t need to buy the peripheral, and they can do it right away!
Mr. Whip’s next point is that Disney and Fox are unhappy with the BD rollout so far. He suggests that therefore they may switch to HD DVD. Personally, I think it’s way to early to call that one. We’re in the very early stages of the format war, and to say that a studio will switch sides this soon is premature at best. It may happen, I just don’t think it would happen anytime soon. Which would give BD a chance to stretch its legs and start doing better than it has.
Read the article for more, and feel free to post your opinions. I won’t bite! Though I may disagree.
Blu-ray Wins? Not So Fast